The Danube has started receding again, and the situation around Paks could deteriorate further in the coming days, Prime Minister Péter Magyar said at a government briefing on Thursday. According to the prime minister, the water level is currently around minus 119–120 centimeters, experts expect minus 121 centimeters by Friday morning, and it could reach minus 132 centimeters by Sunday or Monday. That is the level at which one of the two turbines currently operating at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant would have to be shut down again. The six-to-seven-day forecast already shows a possible drop to minus 136–137 centimeters, while Magyar said the entire nuclear power plant would have to be shut down at minus 140 centimeters. Construction of a riverbed sill has therefore already begun between Paks and Dunaszentbenedek, while two 80-meter barges are being prepared in case immediate intervention becomes necessary.

Even a Few Centimeters Could Be Crucial at Paks

According to Péter Magyar, the current situation has shown that even a difference of just a few centimeters in the Danube’s water level can have major consequences for the operation of the nuclear power plant. The river began receding again on Thursday afternoon, and short-term forecasts suggest that this trend could continue over the next several days.

The prime minister said that at around minus 132 centimeters, one of the two turbines currently still in operation may have to be shut down. Of the plant’s eight turbines, only two are now running, together producing nearly 500 megawatts of electricity.

Magyar added that the medium-term outlook is also unfavorable. Over the next six to seven days, the water level could fall to minus 136–137 centimeters, while at minus 140 centimeters, he said, the entire Paks Nuclear Power Plant would have to be shut down.

Construction of the Riverbed Sill Has Already Begun

Following a government decision, construction of the riverbed sill has already started between Paks and Dunaszentbenedek. According to Magyar, the structure could provide a lasting increase in the water level near the nuclear plant, while not causing significant problems in the event of future flooding.

The sill will be built on an approximately 300-meter section of the Danube between the plant’s cold-water and warm-water channels. József Gacsályi, technical deputy director-general of the National Directorate General for Water Management, said that around 800 cubic meters of water per second currently flow through the section where the structure must be built.

The Most Important Section Could Be Completed Within 30 Days

Under the current plans, the part of the riverbed sill capable of producing a significant rise in the water level should be completed within 30 days. Construction will continue around the clock, with water management experts, the military, designated contractors and other state bodies all involved.

A total of 145,000 cubic meters of stone will be placed in the Danube during the project. The first 35,000 cubic meters will be used to build a transverse stone ridge that could already raise the water level at Paks substantially, after which another 110,000 cubic meters will reinforce the riverbed and protect the structure.

The Project Will Cost More Than HUF 6 Billion

Péter Magyar said the current estimated gross cost of the riverbed sill is HUF 6.165 billion. The amount already includes the reconstruction of certain road sections and the later restoration of the affected riverbanks.

The project will be financed from the national emergency fund. The budget of the National Directorate General for Water Management will be opened for the project, while Magyar promised that contractors would have to account for every forint of public money spent.

Two 80-Meter Barges Are Also on Standby

In addition to the riverbed sill, two 80-meter barges are being prepared in case the Danube recedes faster than expected. The vessels will be positioned near the cold-water intake channel at an angle of roughly 45 degrees and would only be sunk as a last resort.

According to the models, fully sinking one barge could raise the water level by as much as 20 centimeters. Gacsályi said that under suitable water-depth conditions, even partially flooding the 2.9-meter-high barges so that around half a meter remains above the water could produce an immediate 10–15 centimeter rise.

Magyar stressed, however, that deploying the barges would also involve risks. If one were to break loose, become wedged, or block the warm-water outlet channel, it could create new and serious problems, which is why they would only be used if absolutely necessary.

Work Is Already Underway on Both Banks

On the left bank of the Danube, military personnel have begun work because that side can be accessed more easily over dry ground. On the right bank, where the water is deeper and the flow stronger, designated contractors are working together with water management specialists.

A significant share of the heavy machinery is already on site, and staging areas, transport routes and storage sites for the large amount of stone have been prepared. Some stone has already arrived, and a smaller quantity has already been placed near the river.

The Two Sides of the Stone Ridge Could Meet by September

According to the detailed schedule, work in mid-August will include clearing the route and laying geotextile on the left bank. At the same time, a barge bridgehead will be built on the right bank, followed by a pontoon system made of barges through which the stone can be placed directly into the riverbed.

Between August 18 and September 4, around 8,000 cubic meters of stone will be installed from the left bank, while roughly 16,000 cubic meters could be placed from the right bank by the end of August. During the first days of September, additional stone will be used to stabilize the structure, and between September 5 and 11 the two sections built from opposite banks are expected to meet.

A Full Shutdown at Paks Would Cost at Least HUF 50 Billion a Month

Péter Magyar said a complete loss of generation at the nuclear plant would cause at least HUF 50 billion in direct damage to the state budget every month. According to him, that figure does not include the higher cost of imported electricity or the resulting losses for businesses and the broader economy.

The prime minister also said the water shortage is already affecting GDP. There are no exact calculations yet, but he estimated that the current situation represents roughly a 0.1 percentage-point drag on economic output.

Magyar Says the Situation Could Not Have Been Predicted Months in Advance

The prime minister said a defense working group has been meeting continuously for the past two weeks, monitoring hydrological forecasts and evaluating the data. According to him, the Danube’s water level can realistically be forecast only around three to six days ahead.

Magyar therefore rejected claims that the current situation could have been known with certainty months earlier. He also criticized the previous government, arguing that it had failed to prepare adequate technical plans for a crisis of this kind.

Environmental Assessments Will Also Be Carried Out

The government began the project under an accelerated emergency procedure, but Péter Magyar and József Gacsályi said this does not mean the necessary environmental assessments will be skipped. Hydrobiologists and ecologists have participated in the planning, while the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority has been monitoring the project since the design stage.

The environmental permitting procedure must begin by the end of September. It will assess the impact of the structure on wildlife and the river system, while a permanent operating permit can only be granted if the project meets all relevant requirements.

Cooling Towers and Closed-Loop Cooling Could Also Be Considered

Péter Magyar said the possibility of installing cooling towers and introducing closed-loop cooling at Paks should also be examined over the longer term. According to the prime minister, these would be expensive investments, but they may become necessary for the lifetime extension of the existing plant, for Paks II, or potentially for both.

The government’s longer-term plans also include reforming water management and continuing the Water Back into the Landscape program. Magyar said one of Hungary’s priorities in negotiations over the next EU budget will be securing funding for water-management development.

MNO – Magyar News Online

Photo: Szigetváry Zsolt / MTI

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